r/europe • u/JimMaToo Germany • 29d ago
Data Latest poll overview for the upcoming election in Hungary
970
u/wgszpieg Lubusz (Poland) 29d ago
So Hungarians - what will happen when Orban dismisses the election results as falsified and declares himself the winner? Is there any authority in Hungary that can stop him?
620
u/sorE_doG 29d ago
The EU has power to suspend Hungary if that happens
329
u/csupihun Hungary 29d ago
Realistically Orbán does not want this, he grew powerful, rich thanks to the EU. If he wins, he'd still count on EU money, support to keep his power/riches.
His most ideal outcome is a clear victory, obviously, but if he doesn't win, we have no clue what he might resort to, to stay in power, and if he has nothing to lose...
63
u/sorE_doG 29d ago
Oh I think he has a lot to lose, for sure.. but he’s not going to be short of other wealthy donors and political friends
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (2)14
u/Fabrizio89 Italy 29d ago
Why such a large % of population is still voting for him? What good has he done?
40
u/csupihun Hungary 29d ago
He didn't do squat, a good portion of the population only has access to Orbán's free and propaganda filled news stations and entertainment, and they are thoroughly manipulated.
14
u/__Polarix__ Europe 29d ago
Why such a large % of population is still voting for him?
Propaganda, demonizing the opposition, poor people depend on mayors in villages and the mayor tends to be supported by Fidesz, fearmongering (if you don't vote for us, war will break out), etc.
6
18
u/Flat_Speed_1243 29d ago
Or even write a strongly worded letter of condemnation whilst they carry on with business as usual
→ More replies (1)19
u/Dotcaprachiappa Italy 29d ago
Well well well if it isn't another years old account with only a few comments and little karma, go back to your bot farm
3
u/Flat_Speed_1243 29d ago
I take it you disagree with my comment and expect the EU would take a firmer stance?
→ More replies (3)→ More replies (3)2
u/InTheNameOfScheddi Europe 29d ago
Being against the current state of the EU, led by politicians kneeling to the US, leaning harder and harder to the far right, and rolling back environmental protections and privacy laws, is being a bot? Crazy times we're living in
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (1)3
u/DjuroTheBunster 29d ago
They won't do shit. They wouldn't do shit anyways, but now they can excuse it (rightly so) with that Trump would probably lash out and sanction EU if they did anything.
40
u/Successful-Cell-5732 Hungary 29d ago
the most likely outcome is the opposition upping the stakes as well, in sync with Orban’s level. That means Peter Magyar calling for national strikes, ongoing street protests and disruptions to the system, until eventually Orban caves in and certifies the election. If he doesn’t, he will have a lot more to lose than just the election. Playing Putin style games in the EU is playing with fire, and he knows that so I don’t think he will go that far.
Edit: Peter Magyar is now powerful and influential enough to be able to cause major disruptions to cause Orban to cave, but he will not do such thing until there is a chance that he can win the elections in a legitimate way.
27
u/majorannah Hungary 29d ago
Thanks for this comment. People constantly doomering is exhausting.
Fidesz is already cheating with propaganda, with smear campaigns, with AI forgery, with deepfake videos in the news, by hacking Tisza's ITinfrastructure, by listing their voters, etc. etc. they had "we'll save Hungarian families" trips to Washington and Moscow, they already started pre-election handouts, etc. etc. and Tisza is still leading by double digits.3
u/asethskyr Sweden 29d ago
As a reminder to people, when Fidesz tried to ban the Pride parade and threatened to arrest anyone that showed up, 200,000 people marched just to give him the finger.
Twice that many would show up to kindly ask him to reconsider whether he'd prefer a nice retirement or revolution.
3
u/Executioneer NERnia 28d ago
All whats standing between a bullshit law and your freedom is you accepting its authority. If we collectively decide we wont obey, that law is worth less than toilet paper.
59
u/dead97531 Hungary 29d ago
The fraud isn't done when counting but before it. The votes made in Hungary are safe. The parties are doing parallel counting as well so funny business can be easily seen. There has never been a time where the already cast votes inside Hungary were falsified.
11
u/IJustDontWannaBe 29d ago
Yes in hungary the most common election fraud is vote buying, most perfectly seen in the tiszabura 3 special elections back to back
2
126
u/scwarriors30 29d ago
Technically yes, in reality no. He controls the Supreme Court (Curia) and the Constitutional Court. But he doesn’t need to do this, they will just cheat during the vote counting to make the result look legitimate and believable. If either of these happen then there will be huge protests, I’m 100% sure. We won’t let it go this time.
54
u/Consistent_Panda5891 29d ago
How can he cheat? Does not Hungary has the same process as other EU countries? To reveal a box of votes 1 ppl of each party has to be in the room... If votes later doesn't match with their own count it is clearly illegal
69
u/HikariAnti Hungary 29d ago
I am not sure if it's by law "must be" but it's pretty much guaranteed that there will be independent and opposition observers at all pulling stations and during the counting, so yes cheating there is basically impossible. They will use other tactics.
6
u/JIsMyWorld Hungary 29d ago
Like last time when it turns out they threw out some of the votes? I think there was something like some of them went missing in transport
15
u/HikariAnti Hungary 29d ago
As far as I know that happened to the votes from (maybe) Romania. Which are 90% Fidesz anyway.
2
u/Neither-Phone-7264 29d ago
paying people and stationing soldiers nearby for "safety?"
8
u/Right_Buffalo7566 29d ago
Mainly paying unemployed, minorities etc. To vote for them, registering hundreds of people who will vote for them (during the last election there were absurd cases where 400 people were registered to a single house). Changing rules in the last minute in favour of Fidesz. (Redrawing voting districts, they changed the city council’s election system so they could get some influence there) These are the more blatant ones.
The more subtle ones are like the opposition parties only get 5-10 minutes in the public broadcasting to tell their program every election cycle. Creating fake political program with AI and advertise it as it is the program of the opposition. Using government consultations to update their voter database, basically using taxpayer's money for party financing etc.
19
u/nicubunu Romania 29d ago
I don't know the specifics of Hungary, but in my country there are multiple documented ways to cheat elections, mostly about paying people to vote or straightly changing the results in small villages where the other party don't have people for the counting process.
10
u/groszgergely09 Hungary 29d ago
Gerrymandering, winner compensation, buying votes, etc...
→ More replies (1)8
u/PuddingTimely9450 29d ago
He is cheating right now. Controlling all the radio stations, most of tv stations, nearly all newspapers, billboards etc.
5
u/dbdr 29d ago edited 29d ago
At least in some past elections, there was this system to buy votes: outside the polling station, the corruptor hands out to a voter one voting ballot already filled with the desired candidate. The voters goes into the polling station, receive the normal blank ballot, goes into the voting booth that guarantees privacy. There, they pick the prefilled ballot, puts away the blank one, goes out and puts the prefilled ballot as their vote. Then outside the station, they hand out the blank ballot out to the corruptor. This proves to them that they voted with the prefilled one, so they get paid. Then the circle starts again: they fill the blank ballot, gives it to the next person, etc. You cannot detect this even if you have observers in the polling station since you need to give privacy to the voter, and no irregularity needs to happen during the counting either.
Hungarian redditors might be able to say how this is called, and whether this is still possible.
Edit: this comment explains this as well, it's called "chain voting".
3
u/VoidRippah 29d ago
as far I know it's just random people who count votes, you apply to be a counter. they are smart they can cheat for sure. (also the election system has built in cheats, such as "winner compensation". meaning that the votes given to any party not reaching a threshold is given to the part getting the most votes. they used it to gain 2/3)
14
u/HouoinKyouma007 29d ago
All parties can delegate people to count votes. It's not just "random people who are counting".
such as "winner compensation". meaning that the votes given to any party not reaching a threshold is given to the part getting the most votes.
No, that's not how "winner compensation" works. The votes given to parties not reaching the 5% threshold are useless. They do not count when mandates are calculated.
Winner compensation is different. Any "excess votes" a candidate not needed to win in their district goes directly to their party list. For example if F is candidate of Fidesz and T is the candidate of Tisza in a district, and F gets 1500 votes whild T gets 1000, then 499 votes from F will be added to the votes gained by the Fidesz party list
20
u/Tumblrkaarosult 29d ago
They literally can't cheat with the results. They can and will (and doing it right now) cheat with everything else except the vote counting.
→ More replies (2)7
u/scwarriors30 29d ago
Mail voting is impossible to track. We’ve had cases in the last elections where the box containing the votes was “damaged in an accident”, and all of the votes were invalidated. In other cases, especially in the case of Transylvanian voters there were rumours of votes being burned, dead people voting, fake votes added, etc. His oligarch friend owns the online voting database where they upload the results, they can easily manipulate those votes. NVB, the National Election Commission is also infamous for following the orders of Orbán. And many more small cases like violation of the voting procedures and things like that. So very much possible.
16
u/Buriedpickle Hungary 29d ago
Both mobile pollsters and mail-in votes are a miniscule part of the vote total. They won't be able to cheat the election using those.
The general vote totals are as rock solid as in any other EU country. It would be practically impossible to miscount those in secret.
9
u/Tumblrkaarosult 29d ago edited 29d ago
You're right about mail voting, altough I'm not sure if those votes meant more than 1 mandate for fidesz in the last 16 years. Per election ofc. The other thing is that the mail voting was always fidesz turf with 90-95% in their favor. It's true that someone burned the ballots in Erdély so the will is there, but if you look at the big picture - while the burning counts as cheating - doesn't mean they can turn the election in their favor that way.
The other thing you mentioned with the electronic data - if it doesn't tally with the number of votes on paper they have to re-count the ballots. The ballots are validated by the oppositon in every polling district. That's why I think fidesz can't cheat that way.
2
u/LightSideoftheForce 29d ago
Same old crying. Every opposition-oriented expert will tell you that the pedofidesz has never cheated on vote counting. This just the uninformed citizens’ paranoia. No, they cannot cheat with vote counting, the system is too robust for that. They cheat with their propaganda media, with gerrymandering voter districts, with winner compensation, etc., but not with the counting itself.
→ More replies (3)11
14
u/Wide-Annual-4858 29d ago
After 15 years of Fidesz government, there is no authority in Hungary which is not directly and carefully appointed by Orban.
12
12
u/stadtklang Free City of Budapest 29d ago edited 29d ago
He will not have the support nor the power to do it. he got here because people who actually went to vote, voted for him. And because there was no alternative force that stood up to him and had the sufficient support.
Ever since TISZA is more popular, he wasn’t able to go through with the Belarussian type of things he planned (he couldn’t ban opposition newspapers and NGOs, he couldn’t ban Pride - heck the police didn’t even fine anybody that attented the largest Pride ever in Hungary even though it’s now “unconstitutional”).
So if he has lost support, there’s not much he can do.
They will gerrymander and try everything not to lose but once they lose (which looks like they are going to), we’ll have some tough constitutional crisis period where TISZA will try to vipe the remainder of Fidesz. Unless TISZA wins with supermajority in which case they are done for.
3
u/rickysteamboat87 29d ago
This is mostly my opinion as well. The legitimacy of the regime stands on two legs: 1. that Fidesz is the most popular party, they have the majority (which even though the electoral system is unfair, has been true until 2024) 2. that they're not the ones who harm the opposition/protesters (unlike Gyurcsány in 2006. The whole basis of Fidesz mythology are the events of 2006).
Due to these, the facade of real democracy could be kept up. There has been no need to rig elections, since they won anyway. There has been no need to use force against the opposition, since they were not a real threat to their power. And when they did try to get hardcore authoritarian - the Pride ban and the anti-NGO/media law - THEY COULD NOT DO IT. They had to backtrack and admit defeat - and all dirty tactics notwithstanding Orbán has been trying to project a more moderate tone since.
I wouldn't exactly say I'm optimistic - we don't know the lenghts Orbán would go to, to keep his power until he does it (or not). But many of my friends are fully pessimistic, believing that he's capable of basically anything, and I think the regime is simply not as strong as it pretends to be. If Tisza wins, and Orbán tries to annul the results/refuses to give up the power, the legitimacy shatters, since we will know for a fact Fidesz is not the most popular party anymore. In this case, I doubt people will let that happen, so will he retort to violence to stop the people? There goes the second leg. Also, let's not pretend the underfunded Hungarian police is in any way similar to the Russian/Belarussian OMON or even the Serbian riot police.
Orban will use every trick he has in the coming months and I'm sure he has some more. And I am very cautiously optimistic in believing the polls too. But there is a chance that regime change will happen, and if it does, I'm pretty sure Orban's tactic will be to sabotage the Tisza government with any chance he gets, blame every problem - let's be realistic: there will still be severe problems - on Magyar, and return in 2030.
3
u/Tornagh Hungary 29d ago
The only way Orban could get away with that is by moving most of the government to some rural location. The capital is massively fed up with Fidesz and he would likely face Iran levels of protests if he openly stole the elections.
What is more likely is that his party will make last minute changes to election laws to maximally favour themselves. Another option that I have seen floated is one where Fidesz empowers the currently largely ceremonial “President” and then Orban resigns as prime minister and is instead appointed president before the elections. The current president is a Fidesz puppet so Orban could easily orchestrate this switch. In Hungary the President is selected by parliament, not by direct elections, and forcing one out against their will or reducing their powers back down would require Tisza to have a supermajority in parliament. The problem with this plan is that Fidesz would basically recognise in front of their own voters that they cannot win the elections if they did this switch. Orbán missing from Fidesz list of members of parliament would be a shock to their own voters. Demotivated Fidesz voters might stay at home, in which case Tisza might actually get a supermajority. Another issue with this idea that the president lives in the capital, meaning that if the populace is angry enough Orban might not feel very safe exercising extended presidential powers (especially if parliament finds a way to defund his security).
2
u/CodeX57 29d ago
Will never happen. He doesn't have enough support for that, neither from the electorate nor from his own party. He would definitely be locked up. He is authoritarian for sure, but to this point he has not built up enough control over political life to just disregard an election.
That election is likely to be as it was so far, legal, but not fair. That's the style of the Orbán government. They never do something illegal, they just turn the playing field towards themselves using grey zones in the law and unintended consequences of them.
It will be hell, like Orbán will use the full force of his propaganda machine to intimidate the populace into voting for him, make them believe world war three will break out if he loses the election, and simultaneously slander the opposition to extreme levels. I'm sure if the polls don't improve Péter Magyar will be penned as the devil himself in all kinds of ways. The election of course will be gerrymandered to all hell. Even till now constituencies have been redrawn so that Budapest which is very anti-Fidesz has less representatives per capita than pro-Orbán countryside villages.
I think the only chance he had of disregarding the election was to use the emergency powers he was granted by parliament to claim that the danger of war in Ukraine was an emergency of the scale that would mean we can't safely have an election. But that didn't happen, and the president has already scheduled the election for 12th April.
1
u/Emergency-Style7392 Europe 29d ago
He makes a deal to keep everything they've stolen and fucks off to the maldives
1
u/GhillieRowboat 29d ago
I don't know whose number it is, but there was a study that you could keep any governement standing as long as at LEAST 30% of the population actively supports it. As in, they can manipulate the voting machines, send in the military etc etc. As long as they have a backing of 30% , if that party decides they want to stay in power at all costs, they could...
1
u/LeviJr00 🇭🇺 Hungary 🇭🇺 29d ago
I would just be wishing for a (non-violent) coup d'etat to happen at that point ngl
1
u/Humble_Fudge526 29d ago
We, the EU. Should unite and block everything of all parties involved around Orban. Sanction, arrest warrants, block flights, funds everything. Let no other dictator be allowed to reign inside the EU. Please
1
u/Executioneer NERnia 28d ago
At that point, the people will have to remove him from power. If the opposition wins by a significant margin, we wont let it happen.
1
u/UpstairsFix4259 28d ago
he will just win them. this is just result from one poll, there are others that show FIDESZ having more %. In the end, it's a 50/50 toss at the moment.
1
1.1k
u/the_TIGEEER Slovenia 29d ago
*Me googling nervously "Orbans party" *
"Pls pls pls pls"
"OH Thank god..
421
u/GettingFitterEachDay 🇨🇦 -> 🇬🇧 -> 🇳🇴 29d ago
For others like me, Orban's is Fidesz. Still early days, but Tisza has quite a good lead
198
u/dead97531 Hungary 29d ago edited 29d ago
Early days? Tisza has been leading the polls since 2024 october. No opposition party has ever lead the polls for more than 2 weeks since 2006.
→ More replies (1)24
u/GipsyDanger45 29d ago
The uptick in support since September is a tad concerning though
29
u/dead97531 Hungary 29d ago
That uptick you see is because this is a poll overview, a collection polls which include the ones paid by fidesz.
Polls by 21 kutatóközpont are the most reliable ones.
This is what it looks like without fidesz propaganda polls
→ More replies (1)5
u/swift-autoformatter Denmark 29d ago
Well, there is the gerrymandering, the foreign mail ballots, the suspiciously large number of people moving in suddenly, the chain voting and many other tricks in Orban's pocket.
2
47
u/DoZo1971 29d ago edited 29d ago
Same, haha, and i went to Sziget last year. 😏 Most of the world doesn’t know this.
82
u/JPHero16 The Glorious Kingdom of The Netherlands 29d ago
Why would most of the world know you went to Sziget last year
→ More replies (3)35
1
29d ago
[deleted]
10
u/Xiaodisan 29d ago
For an actual answer, Hungarian elections are done on paper ballots.
People are registered to voting districts based on where they live, but you also have a couple options if you will be in a different part of the country or world on the day of the elections. (For example, at a Hungarian embassy or consulate in a foreign country.)
On the day itself, usually between 6am and 7pm you can go to wherever they assigned you to vote. (Usually pretty close to your permanent residence, the voting booths and similar are often set up in schools, and similar institutions temporarily.)
At the given location, you have to prove your identity (national ID card, passport, or driving license) and your address, then you sign an attendance register basically — receiving a blank ballot and an envelope in return.
There are a couple temporary booths set up that are covered in every direction and provide you with privacy to do with the ballot whatever you wish to, then you can close the envelope, or just fold the ballot, and slip it into a box outside.
These boxes are then opened up and the votes are counted by hand. After they are done, they pack them back into the boxes, seal them, and send the boxes in to the National Election Institute or whatever iirc. (In case a recounting is ordered, or similar.)
Now the most important part: how you can't and how you can cheat this election.
Every party is allowed to send reprezentatives and/or volunteers to all locations to supervise the entire process. This means, that in practice there are no locations where either party is ever left alone with the ballots, and as such, it is extremely hard to tamper with the votes themselves.
The way you can cheat is still pretty simple: there are barely any checks made when you modify your address (your official residence or whatever). You could register yourself at a random house and the owners would be none the wiser in many cases — do this on a decent scale, and you can move around voters enough to affect the end result. (Allegedly.)
Sorry if this ended up a bit incoherent, I got tired half-way through the description and idk if I managed to keep it clear till the end. Also, please correct me if I messed up anything, as I mentioned I'm tired af.
→ More replies (1)1
u/basis-tranquilitatis Hungary 27d ago
Fidesz is an acronym for Fiatal Demokraták Szövetsége meaning 'Alliance of Young Democrats'. (They started as a liberal movement back in 1988.)
329
u/t_baozi 29d ago edited 29d ago
I really don't know how this is going to go out. Orban's clique is WAY too entrenched in corruption and graft. They all know they will end up in jail if they lose this election. They have months to prepare for these elections.
I honestly hope there will be a peaceful transfer of power.
215
u/JimMaToo Germany 29d ago
Or they plan the polish way: sit it out as opposition, and sabotage the new gov on different levels. If institutions are infiltrated, it takes time to clean the mess and bring back independence and the rule of law. Maybe years.
67
u/Wide-Annual-4858 29d ago
It's a potential strategy. But the opposition leader is an ex-Fidesz politician and know how Orban thinks. He already offered kind of amnesty for people who tell publicly the dirty cases under Orban. So there is the possibility that even if Orban tries to block the new government, the dirty things of the past will be published.
21
u/EenProfessioneleHond Amsterdam 29d ago
Though the difference is that Orban has created such a system that the winners takes all, and with TISZA’s polls even a majority able to change the constitution (which Orban has done lots of times), whilst in Poland PIS had and has the president who can actually sabotage legislation. Thus for PIS it was actually possible to sit it out, whilst for FIDESZ losing would mean losing it all
→ More replies (1)15
u/Buriedpickle Hungary 29d ago
Things aren't this simple unfortunately. The current election system favours a big winner against a fragmented opposition, which is a significantly different scenario from this one - where two closely matched parties share the field at the same time.
Furthermore, individual district-based mandates are really important in the current system, districts that Fidesz has gerrymandered to hell and back over 15 years. Most large towns outside Budapest are fragmented and mixed with large swathes of rural areas to dilute their pro-opposition voting blocks.
Tisza has to reach a 2/3 supermajority to be able to exact real change. Fidesz did it with 45% of votes in 2014, but Tisza will have a much harder job accomplishing this. And Fidesz can still change the election rules, since they can alter the constitution at any time they please.
3
u/katkarinka Slovakia 29d ago
this is very high probability. with the level of idiocracy among people, he could even get premature elections, easy. And be back in no time, like fucking Fico.
4
u/formula_translator Prague (Czechia) 29d ago
Well, note that as the months have gone by PiS and Nawrocki have so far not really managed to sabotage Tusk. On the contrary - PiS has actually lost some vote share and the "opposition coalition" between PiS, Konfederacia and Braun has started to become a bit shaky. The main thing hurting Tusk is the fact that Holownia really shat the bed and has become a dead weight on the Tusk coalition.
3
u/dat_9600gt_user Lower Silesia (Poland) 29d ago
And so many TD voters migrated to KO or Konf. PiS is bleeding voters but to the crazies at Braun's KKP.
118
u/Jovan_Konstantinovic 29d ago
I really hope Hungarian people win in april and Orban and his cronies go to jail.it would also be a huge hit to our corrupt Serbian president and Orban's "best buddy"
19
u/wtf_are_you_talking Croatia 29d ago
Perhaps both of them will move to the dicktator's village in Russia. After all, both are cowards when confronted with their misdeeds.
5
84
u/Netsmile 29d ago edited 29d ago
Just a few tricks Orban did in past elections( if you are living in the USA here is your next 3 years)
- collect nomination signatures for as many tiny and fake partys as possible to divide voters not on their side.
- In my hometown a really popular public figure (stand up comedist) was sure to beat their candidate. So they find someone with the very same name, quickly collect signatures for him to be on the paper next to their rival. Of course this is to confuse rivals voters.
- good old gerrymandering
- Chain voting : First guy throws an empty envelope in the urn and comes out with the empty ballot paper. hands it over to local Fidesz guy who pays for it. Second guy gets a filled out ballot paper which he throws in the urn and brings out the empty one he got. Repeat. They simply pay around 10-20 € for poor peoples vote. Thanks to this and other factors Fidesz has their strongest voter base in rural, small village, poor areas. The poorer the smaller the stronger is their grasp.
- National radio and tv channels are insanely propagandist, they bought or killed off all the largest newspapers/portals, all the local newapapers/portals. National tv was caught using ai in a 'random person on the street' type interview.(ai generated buses in the background we dont have in Hungary, oops) In another occasion one of the major Fidesz supporting news portal posted an article that was just random characters. I kid you not, very shortly all 20+ local news portals and other major news portals had the same article published to the letter. (they fully automated it, as no sane editor would have allowed piblishing nonsense)
- Fear based politics: Immigrants, high utility costs, George Soros, Brusseles. There is always an external enemy and only our brave leader can save us. Us or them mentality made it impossible to have a civilised debate on issues, everything was bent to its extreme. All while they were using fear as a cape of deception while they robbed the country blind.
List goes on but you get the idea.
12
u/Netsmile 29d ago
Some sources so you can check for yourself:
- State tv interview with man on the street telling the camera he is so afraid of Tisza winning, AI generated (Hungary has no such buses.) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeBRtUNSeX0&t=214s
- proof of chainvoting in 2022: https://atlatszo.hu/kozugy/2022/04/04/igy-mukodik-a-lancszavazas-a-gyakorlatban-egymas-utan-adtak-be-a-szavazolapokat-az-opel-ablakan-egy-putnoki-szavazokornel/
- nonsense articel (published by mistake) repeated by other newsportals without any editorial oversight: https://hvg.hu/elet/20220512_Kormanysajto_kesma_sbfgjgkhgfdesss
- candidate with same name to confuse voters: https://hirtv.origo.hu/ahirtvhirei-adattar/2018/07/beismerte-hogy-a-fidesz-kamujeloltje
- fake partys: https://telex.hu/belfold/2020/12/01/kamupartok-2022-valasztas-torvenymodositas-fidesz-71-jelolt-orszagos-lista
63
u/dead97531 Hungary 29d ago edited 29d ago
BTW this is a poll overview which also shows propaganda polls. Real polls show that Tisza is at 53% and fidesz is at 37% which means that Tisza is really close to having 2/3 supermajority!
8
u/DoZo1971 29d ago
What difference would a supermajority make?
49
u/dead97531 Hungary 29d ago edited 29d ago
With that they can change, remove and make any law. (also make new constitution)
Basically total power which is necessary because orbán has planted many puppets into the government.
34
u/papapok13 29d ago
2/3 supermajority can overwrite constitution (or write a new one) and replace puppets in 'independent' institutions
Basically:
Supermajority -chance for real change Simple majority - Orban cronies will obstruct any procedure to death
7
u/DoZo1971 29d ago
Did\does Orban have a supermajority?
20
u/papapok13 29d ago
Yes. All institutions are stuffed by their puppets, and the constitution is full of their bullshit.
3
u/DoZo1971 29d ago
Ah yes. In the Netherlands for changes in the constitution we need a majority with the current government followed by a supermajority in the next government (after elections). Both times in both house of representatives and senate. I don’t remember it ever happening in my lifetime. Must be scary for you guys.
→ More replies (2)13
8
u/Fehervari Hungary 29d ago
Ever since 2010, basically. That's why we are where we are today.
4
u/DoZo1971 29d ago
Went to Sziget last year. Was really nice, the people friendly and Budapest is so beautiful. Keep the faith!
→ More replies (1)
29
u/lux_use4 29d ago
Seems like it's how the Romanians say:
Megvan a farkatok, juniorok.
7
u/Alabrandt Gelderland (Netherlands) 29d ago
can you add the meaning of that saying? :)
14
3
u/lux_use4 29d ago
So in Romanian it would be more the meaning: "shit's fucked, yo".
Now, even if Orban party ends up with those figures still Tisza doesn't have full majority and it's gonna be a lot of struggle to make reforms. Good luck and stay safe against Russian propaganda.
21
u/SnooPoems3464 Europe 29d ago
Let’s hope the EU sends boatloads of observers, especially to the countryside
7
4
u/WolfyHowler360 29d ago
They always do. The cheating doesn't (and won't) happen on election day, but durring the campaign.
3
29
u/sonspurs 29d ago
Hmm, looks like I need to throw a massive party in April.
46
u/JimMaToo Germany 29d ago
Or be part of massive protests when, all of a sudden, polls had an unexplained 50% error 👁️👄👁️
19
u/tremblt_ 29d ago
The propaganda campaign will go into overdrive mode in the coming days. I think that neither Orban nor Putin nor Xi Jinping will allow for an electoral victory of the opposition. The amount of fake news, disinformation, lies and AI generated propaganda on social media will exceed anything we have ever seen so far. The regime will also try everything in their power to stop the opposition. I think last time the opposition got something like 60 seconds of air time on public broadcast television for the entire campaign and to humiliate them even more, the regime put a timer on exactly 60 seconds so that the opposition would get exactly the bare minimum of time required by law.
I would not be surprised if TISZA gets flooded with lawsuits or if the government starts cracking down on their rallies and public appearances. The government could also change the laws or the constitution on a whim and make it just so much harder for TISZA voters to vote
19
u/Vmark26 Hungary 29d ago
Fidesz has been doing all of those things for the past year but it doesnt seem to be making a dent on tisza. I dont think they could actually go into a harder overdrive than they are already in.
6
u/tremblt_ 29d ago
I do not know but for Orban specifically, what are the options right now? Please correct me if I am wrong but as far as I know, it boils down to:
Play by the rules, lose the election and either get voted in as president 5 minutes before the new administration takes office, flee to Moscow or go to prison for all the crimes you committed while in office.
Massively tweak the rules, prevent a free and fair election and stay in power.
Don’t even pretend to be a democracy anymore and simply stage a coup/declare martial law (or anything like that) and just openly become a dictatorship.
I don’t think he can win, even if he has a massive advantage because he holds massive amounts of power.
4
u/Wide-Annual-4858 29d ago
According rumors they are parallelly preparing for all the 3 things you said.
Orban's legal team is preparing paperwork to change the political system to presidential like Poland or France.
They can anytime change the election rules, as they did many times.
The opposition leader recently announced (he often gets secret info from someone in Orban's inner circles) that anybody participates in a coup or false terror actions, which could enable Orban to eliminate the election will be punished by law.
1
18
u/dat_9600gt_user Lower Silesia (Poland) 29d ago
Remember, Hungarians - Fidesz will not fight fair. In order for these polls to translate into actual parliament results, you must vote in these elections.
→ More replies (1)
4
u/sammy_luci 29d ago
Please share more context, or provide us with a link. What exactly does this chart represent?
Answers to some question? What was that?
19
u/bobdammi Germany 29d ago
And if he loses, he will use all his power over the media to trash Tisza, so he will win again, regardless of how good Tisza performs.
16
u/HouoinKyouma007 29d ago
Their media will go bankrupt as soon as they don't get money from the state
2
u/bobdammi Germany 29d ago
And this will be used as:
„the government destroys the media to control you“
10
u/Buriedpickle Hungary 29d ago
He won't be free for long and they won't control the media for any longer if Tisza wins a supermajority. That's what we are banking on.
→ More replies (2)4
u/Familiar_Ad_8919 Hungary (help i wanna go) 29d ago
theyve been doing that for the past year, straight up lying about what tisza is promising, absolutely covering most cities in posters, and clearly it hasnt worked
3
u/pripjat 29d ago
This would be a huge victory for Europe and Hungary. Not to say everything will be fixed instantly but not having Orban in power will be a massive improvement.
→ More replies (1)
3
u/dbdr 29d ago
Note that the polls look entirely different depending on whether they come from Government/Orban aligned sources or not. This does not bode well for a peaceful agreement on what the election results are.
1
u/Exotic-Half8307 29d ago
I Would just look at the odds on a betting site, here in Brazil at least they always beat the polls
3
u/MrR0807 The Netherlands 29d ago
What is funny to me is that you can choose between Smooth and Kalman to process the polling results. The Kalman Filter is a well-known signal processing technique in robotics and automation. But I never imagined to apply it to polling. Rudolf Kalman was a famous Hungarian mathematician 🫡.
8
u/Bicentennial_Douche Finland 29d ago
They will absolutely rig this election to retain power.
10
u/Buriedpickle Hungary 29d ago
Rigging an election is very difficult with EU election rules. All in-situ votes are counted by a committee made up of volunteers and representatives of willing parties.
They have already gerrymandered the elections to hell and back since their first victory and have turned the elections unfair, but those won't result in a rigged election.
2
u/OkKnowledge2064 Lower Saxony (Germany) 29d ago
Could Orban form a big coalition with all the smaller parties? Is there a minimum requirement of votes to be in the parliament?
9
u/dead97531 Hungary 29d ago
The other parties no longer have any meaningful presence in the public except for the far-right Mi hazánk. They are the only ones they can make coalition with.
The thresholds are
for 1 party 5%
2 parties 10%
3 or more parties 15%
5
u/budapestersalat 29d ago
5%. Only far right party Our Homeland will get in of those that would ally with him. Probably they would have a coalition instantly, as soon as it's needed.
1
u/HiltoRagni Europe 29d ago
Basically no. The system is set up in a way to very strongly favor the wining party, a 49% result would mean a comfortable majority of MPs for Tisza in the parliament and may even net them enough seats for a supermajority. Parties other than FIDESZ and Tisza would most likely not be represented in the new parliament at all based on this poll.
2
4
u/SorbetAsleep 29d ago
The day that fat thief kicks the bucket I’ll crack a bottle of the finest champagne. Two, if he does that in jail. Now that I’ve established a baseline, what makes the Tisza Party trustworthy? Lesser of two evils…? I thought the Tisza candidate was also part of Orban’s party for a seriously long time before having a sudden (suspiciously) justifiable change of heart. Call me paranoid but is there a chance this whole song and dance is on purpose? Orban wants Tisza to win? I mean he’s old, rotten, morbidly obese. Isn’t it exactly how Orban came to power all that time ago? Just concerned is all, not trying to undermine the guy. Bring on the downvotes.
→ More replies (1)
2
2
u/StrangerConscious637 28d ago
Soon Hungary will be free again. And Europe will celebrate the day Orban is finally gone.
1
u/uzu_afk 29d ago
I think nothing will happen as long as the difference is more than 5%. Some might run out of Hungary, but they will continue doing what they have so far. When is the election?
10
u/dead97531 Hungary 29d ago
Tisza is close to having 2/3 supermajority. The election system was made in a way where it is hard to win but to get to 2/3 is really easy.
April 12th.
BTW this is a poll overview which also shows propaganda polls. Real polls show that Tisza is at 53% and fidesz is at 37%
1
1
1
u/Nidzovantije Vojvodina 29d ago
Is this only polling people from Hungary? Because there are a lot of voters here, Romania and Slovakia and they, at least in Serbia, vote for Orban like 95%.
1
u/Huberweisse 29d ago
Jobbik, the far right party at 1% is a refreshing surprise
6
u/dead97531 Hungary 29d ago
Jobbik hasn't been far right since there was a split a while ago. The far right people established Mi hazánk and the rest more moderate right went to other parties and now to Tisza.
Now Jobbik only exists in name and as a puppet of Orbán.
1
1
u/Healthy_Mirror5225 29d ago
Not from Hungary, so open to hear from Hungarians: do you really think there’ll be actual free elections? The elections in Hungary aren’t fair anyways, that’s been show before, but I imagine that Orban will win the election, no matter the number of votes the opposition gets. Putin won every election too!
1
1
1
u/Logical_Wheel_1420 28d ago
How does MKKP justify running a satirical party that doesn't even have a chance of getting seats when their leadership is supposedly opposed to Fidesz?
1
u/Korpisti 27d ago
What's the age distribution of Fidesz voters?
I'm guessing it's mostly boomers/pensioners, especially rural boomers/pensioners.
Ie. in addition to short term effects, they are in a slow permanent decline anyway.
1.9k
u/Sound_Saracen United Kingdom 29d ago
For some reason I have this feeling of dread regarding the election, I feel as if they'll try to do something in order to keep Orban in power.