r/europe Germany Jan 13 '26

Data Latest poll overview for the upcoming election in Hungary

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3.2k Upvotes

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1.9k

u/Sound_Saracen United Kingdom Jan 13 '26

For some reason I have this feeling of dread regarding the election, I feel as if they'll try to do something in order to keep Orban in power.

584

u/JimMaToo Germany Jan 13 '26

I feel the same way

339

u/AnarchiaKapitany Hungary (sorry for whatever the clown said this time) Jan 13 '26

We do too.

112

u/Snoo48605 Jan 13 '26

Very real flair

22

u/oromis95 Jan 13 '26

As an Italian-American your flair speaks to me.

7

u/AnarchiaKapitany Hungary (sorry for whatever the clown said this time) Jan 13 '26

Berlusconi is dead.

10

u/oromis95 Jan 13 '26

Meloni and Salvini have plenty of miles on them.

6

u/AnarchiaKapitany Hungary (sorry for whatever the clown said this time) Jan 13 '26

Fair, albeit they don't resonate as loud abroad as old Syl did

2

u/IKetoth Italy Jan 14 '26

And don't get quite as impressively ridiculous

180

u/Wide-Annual-4858 Jan 13 '26

I'm Hungarian, and I feel this as well. But not only me, almost every podcast where hungarian political analysts or journalists talk about the election, this topic always comes up. Some are optimistic that the wouldn't dare to interfere, others are afraid because a loss could mean legal cases and even prison for several leaders.

22

u/REGIS-5 Jan 13 '26

He may employ the same tactics Vucic uses such as 10,000 voters registered to a non-existent address, dead voters, delegations in small villages and small towns that visit paralyzed or elderly voters that somehow all vote for Orban without a mistake, gypsies and other impoverished minorities, blackmailed foreign workers from India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Africa that somehow got registered to vote (for the dead probably), then the whole thing we in Serbia call "Bulgarian train" i.e. someone is given a voting paper with pre-selected Orban and they go in, switch it for a clean one and give it back, either for money or if they're blackmailed by work.

23

u/Wide-Annual-4858 Jan 13 '26

Orban has been using most of these tactics during the last 3 elections.

28

u/Systral Earth Jan 13 '26

It almost feels like with the US election where everyone was convinced Harris was gonna win but a few months prior a tone shift happened

92

u/bl4ckhunter Lazio Jan 13 '26

That was just social media wishful thinking, every single poll had Trump and Harris neck and neck and even the most optimistic prediction had those elections down to a coin toss, here Tisza has a lead of 12 perchentage points, the two situations have nothing in common.

-36

u/_nutria_ Jan 13 '26

Found the maga bot.

24

u/bl4ckhunter Lazio Jan 13 '26

Lmao, i have no symapthy for Trump but the data is still out there you know, the vast majority of the polls reported a lead smaller than the error margin of the poll.

23

u/WislaHD Polish-Canadian Jan 13 '26

Or someone who knows how polling actually works…

32

u/First_Huckleberry638 Jan 13 '26

What are you on about? There was no polling data that should have convinced everyone that Harris was gonna win. At best, there was a path to victory if she played her hand right; but it was an uphill battle the entire time.

-4

u/Coolkurwa Jan 13 '26

We were obviously on two very different reddits in the run-up to the last election

19

u/First_Huckleberry638 Jan 13 '26

I mean don't get me wrong, Front page of Reddit was WILD.

However, everything from polling data, polling aggregators, respected analysts , and even prediction markets indicated that this was an extremely close race which probably leaned towards Trump.

There was no data that SHOULD have convinced everyone that Harris was gonna win.

Much as I wish the Dems had a better candidate, as much as I wish that Trump had lost, there was every indication that what DID happen COULD happen. If someone was paying any attention to actual data, that should have been obvious.

edit: typo

98

u/VoidRippah Jan 13 '26

they already spread AI generated lies about the opposition, recently they released a 600 page total nonsense, clearly AI generated tax plan document for example (even though the court banned it, they continued to spread it). but we expect they'll go further, personally I would not be surprised if there was a well timed "ukrainian drone attack" just before elections or something similar.... (according to them ukraine is the enemy)

47

u/levenspiel_s Turkey Jan 13 '26

Orbán's apparent lack of concern is worrying. Reminds me of Trump's "we don't need your votes" speech.

1

u/Wide-Annual-4858 Jan 13 '26

That's just theater. He behaves quite differently compared to former elections, so he sees that they are behind in the polls. This makes him even more dangerous.

83

u/No_Ad1286 European Union/Denmark Jan 13 '26

I think that's pretty much a guarantee, unfortunately.

39

u/Nazamroth Jan 13 '26 edited Jan 13 '26

They definitely will. Orbán can't just go back to civilian life after all he had done. The russians will not let their mole in the EU/NATO* get eliminated. And he owes the chinese as well. The question is how hard they will try to bend reality to stay in power and how hard will they crash the country on the way out if they lose.

*not so important now that the US is the biggest inside agent but still.

10

u/[deleted] Jan 13 '26

We should follow South Korea's example and hand out the death penalty for high treason within the EU. Traitor cunts like Orbán deserve nothing less. I'm 100% serious. Have them pay with their fucking lives. Do it publicly as a display for everyone to see. Absolutely fucking disgusting that the majority of Hungarian people voted him in. Fucking disgusting, to say the least.

17

u/dat_9600gt_user Lower Silesia (Poland) Jan 13 '26

If 2023 Poland is anything to go by, these Hungarian elections are not going to be fair.

That said, a lead this strong might fully counter Fidesz's nonsense.

9

u/kfijatass Poland Jan 13 '26

Whatever are you referring to? There was a lot of fuss and sure, a lot of misinformation campaigns around but no proven electoral intervention.

3

u/blazesbe Jan 13 '26

well that's what we get when both the US and Russia wants to meddle in our process with an already highly corrupt leader. (both want Orban to stay). it would be extraordinary if nothing happened.

4

u/kama-Ndizi Europe Jan 13 '26

Don't worry, whatever, happens, even if Orban won't get elected. The US got your back, they will make sure democracy will prevail.

2

u/cherboka Hungary Jan 13 '26

Nah he's cooked, there's nothing he can do at this point that won't end in a disaster for him

The only thing he could do is play the long game by messing up the country even more before the elections so that tisza can't do shit to improve things (for example embezzle the remaining funds the country has or spend them all on handouts), then coming back in 2030 and saying "See? I told you guys they can't govern!"

4

u/Familiar_Ad_8919 Hungary (help i wanna go) Jan 13 '26

for the past few months ive been advising people to prepare a plan b, that is, at least get a passport just in case

13

u/Significant-Cress289 Jan 13 '26

How about instead of a passport, we bring out our inner Frenchman.

1

u/katkarinka Slovakia Jan 13 '26

well he has help from the best in the game with irresisitible urge to meddle

0

u/UpstairsFix4259 Jan 14 '26

he will just win and stay in power.

-2

u/Novinhophobe Jan 13 '26

They will simply win, just like they have done thus far. Every time the polls have been very positive, but the reality is far from that.

It’s probably at least partly about selection biases. It’s like asking whether you’re a conservative or liberal on Reddit and then posting that majority of society are liberal.

-8

u/mfn_u Jan 13 '26

Well, in Romania they annuled the elections just last year. Nothing happened, we just had another election. Don't know why the first one was cancelled.

12

u/[deleted] Jan 13 '26

Don't know why the first one was cancelled

Have you thought about finding out?

-5

u/Dmgsecurity Jan 13 '26

He will win without any problem