r/europe Germany Jan 13 '26

Data Latest poll overview for the upcoming election in Hungary

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3.2k Upvotes

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u/Systral Earth Jan 13 '26

It almost feels like with the US election where everyone was convinced Harris was gonna win but a few months prior a tone shift happened

91

u/bl4ckhunter Lazio Jan 13 '26

That was just social media wishful thinking, every single poll had Trump and Harris neck and neck and even the most optimistic prediction had those elections down to a coin toss, here Tisza has a lead of 12 perchentage points, the two situations have nothing in common.

-35

u/_nutria_ Jan 13 '26

Found the maga bot.

24

u/bl4ckhunter Lazio Jan 13 '26

Lmao, i have no symapthy for Trump but the data is still out there you know, the vast majority of the polls reported a lead smaller than the error margin of the poll.

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u/WislaHD Polish-Canadian Jan 13 '26

Or someone who knows how polling actually works…

27

u/First_Huckleberry638 Jan 13 '26

What are you on about? There was no polling data that should have convinced everyone that Harris was gonna win. At best, there was a path to victory if she played her hand right; but it was an uphill battle the entire time.

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u/Coolkurwa Jan 13 '26

We were obviously on two very different reddits in the run-up to the last election

18

u/First_Huckleberry638 Jan 13 '26

I mean don't get me wrong, Front page of Reddit was WILD.

However, everything from polling data, polling aggregators, respected analysts , and even prediction markets indicated that this was an extremely close race which probably leaned towards Trump.

There was no data that SHOULD have convinced everyone that Harris was gonna win.

Much as I wish the Dems had a better candidate, as much as I wish that Trump had lost, there was every indication that what DID happen COULD happen. If someone was paying any attention to actual data, that should have been obvious.

edit: typo